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Giants 18, Cubs 3: Chapman 8 RBI, 7 HRs at Wrigley — SF tied SF-era grand slam record Chad Dallas MLB debut win — Blue Jays beat Braves 7-2 at Truist Park Yankees 2, Guardians 1: Judge out but Schuemann 2 highlight catches Sanchez 50 2/3 scoreless IP — longest by a left-hander ever — Phillies 3-2 Webb no-hitter into 7th — Giants beat Brewers 1-0 on Bericoto first career HR Giants 18, Cubs 3: Chapman 8 RBI, 7 HRs at Wrigley — SF tied SF-era grand slam record Chad Dallas MLB debut win — Blue Jays beat Braves 7-2 at Truist Park Yankees 2, Guardians 1: Judge out but Schuemann 2 highlight catches Sanchez 50 2/3 scoreless IP — longest by a left-hander ever — Phillies 3-2 Webb no-hitter into 7th — Giants beat Brewers 1-0 on Bericoto first career HR

2026 MLB Playoff Odds — Baseball Playoff Chances & Odds to Make Playoffs for Every Team

MLB Playoff Odds

Updated: 2026-08-20 03:20 UTC — Powered by 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

1 game LIVE. LAD @ COL has major playoff implications.

D-backs beat Red Sox — now at 45%. Twins beat Braves — now at 34%. LIVE: Dodgers @ Rockies — both with playoff stakes.

Movers: Blue Jays ↑2%, White Sox ↑4%, Twins ↑13%, Orioles ↓11%, Tigers ↓11%, Marlins ↓7%

Bubble Watch: Phillies (79%) in good shape with 34 games to go. | Astros (70%) in good shape with 35 games to go. | Padres (61%) right on the bubble — their record (68-60) leaves little room for error. | D-backs (45%) right on the bubble — their record (67-61) leaves little room for error.

TeamRecordDivisionPlayoff Odds
LAD76-51NL West99.5%
MIL78-49NL Central97.7%
TB76-50AL East97.3%
NYY71-55AL East97.3%
CHC74-54NL Central96.4%
ATL74-53NL East96.2%
BOS68-59AL East96.0%
CWS66-60AL Central86.2%
PHI70-58NL East78.6%
HOU64-63AL West69.6%
SD68-60NL West60.8%
ARI67-61NL West44.7%
MIN63-65AL Central33.8%
TEX62-65AL West30.5%
TOR62-66AL East25.4%
CLE61-66AL Central17.4%
SEA60-67AL West16.4%
DET61-66AL Central15.5%
STL65-63NL Central15.0%
BAL61-66AL East14.5%
MIA64-64NL East7.0%
PIT63-66NL Central2.6%
WSH61-67NL East0.9%
CIN61-66NL Central0.6%
KC54-74AL Central0.0%
LAA50-77AL West0.0%
OAK49-78AL West0.0%
NYM58-70NL East0.0%
SF52-74NL West0.0%
COL50-76NL West0.0%
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About BaseChaser MLB Playoff Odds

BaseChaser calculates MLB playoff odds using 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations updated daily. Each simulation models every remaining game in the season using team Elo ratings blended with WAR-based strength priors, producing playoff probabilities for all 30 MLB teams.

Current Playoff Favorites

As of 2026-08-20 03:20 UTC, the teams most likely to make the 2026 MLB playoffs are: LAD (99.5%), MIL (97.7%), TB (97.3%), NYY (97.3%), CHC (96.4%). These teams have the highest probability based on current record, remaining schedule difficulty, and division positioning.

Teams on the Bubble

The 2026 MLB playoff race features several teams fighting for Wild Card spots. Bubble Watch: Phillies (79%) in good shape with 34 games to go. | Astros (70%) in good shape with 35 games to go. | Padres (61%) right on the bubble — their record (68-60) leaves little room for error. | D-backs (45%) right on the bubble — their record (67-61) leaves little room for error.

Fading Contenders

Teams with diminishing playoff hopes include: PIT (2.6%), WSH (0.9%), CIN (0.6%), KC (0.0%), LAA (0.0%).

How It Works

Unlike simple projection systems, BaseChaser simulates the entire remaining season 100,000 times. Each simulation accounts for team strength (via Elo ratings calibrated to real game results), schedule difficulty, head-to-head matchups, and division/Wild Card tiebreaker rules. The result is a percentage representing how often each team makes the playoffs across all simulations.

BaseChaser is a free alternative to FanGraphs playoff odds, Baseball Reference playoff odds, and 538 MLB predictions. Updated daily during the MLB season.